Poverty Amid Multiple Crises in Madagascar

Poverty in Madagascar is structural and dynamic — reproduced by the interaction of institutional fragility, spatial inequality, gendered constraints, and increasingly frequent compound shocks. Amid intermittent growth spurts, the country has achieved little sustained poverty reduction since the early 2000s. More than three-quarters of the population live below the national poverty line, with rural poverty particularly entrenched and urban poverty rising under recent crises. Recurrent political instability, climate shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, price volatility, and weak public systems have combined to produce a condition described by many participants in this research as “crisis without recovery”. This report synthesises nationally representative quantitative analysis with in-depth qualitative research across four contrasting regions: Androy, Boeny, Analamanga, and Vakinankaratra, which are selected to represent the regional diversity of Madagascar in terms of ecology, livelihoods, governance capacity, and vulnerability to shocks. The quantitative evidence identifies the statistical correlates of poverty and the association between compound shocks and lower welfare. The qualitative research reveals how these pressures are lived, negotiated, and reproduced within households and communities over time. Together, the evidence shows that poverty in Madagascar functions as a system of recurrent loss under structural constraints. Structural Constraints and Amplifiers: Why Shocks Become Poverty Traps Governance fragility, fiscal constraint, infrastructure gaps, financial exclusion and weak market systems, thin safety nets, and entrenched territorial and gender inequalities create conditions of persistent and deep poverty that amplify the effects of shocks. Weak land administration and limited access to justice convert land disputes and dispossession into long-term livelihood loss. Poor market integration, worsened by poor infrastructure, reduces farm-gate returns and traps producers in low?value chains. Only a small minority of farmers or workers manage to enter higher value chains, add value to raw materials or have access to insurance or formal protection. Droughts, illness, price spikes, land disputes, theft, and political crises become impoverishing because they unfold within this context of fragile institutions including market systems. These structural conditions determine whether shocks are absorbed or transmitted into sustained loss. In Madagascar’s current configuration, they frequently cascade — turning temporary setbacks into chronic poverty. Moreover, households often experience crises in close sequence. Quantitative analysis shows that over 15 per cent of households experienced at least two concurrent shocks including climate-related disasters, most commonly drought combined with price or income shocks — which occurred in just the 12 months preceding the EPM 2021/22 survey. Drought overlaps with inflation; illness overlaps with job loss; political disruption overlaps with market closure. Quantitative analysis moreover shows that compound shocks are strongly associated with lower consumption and higher poverty risk.