Poverty dynamics amidst intersecting crises in Tanzania

Tanzania has seen a decreasing poverty rate since the turn of the century, from 84.0% in 2000 to 45.0% by 2018, when relying on the international US$ 2.15 poverty line, and from 35.6% to 26.4% relying on the national poverty line (WDI, 2024). However, the poverty rate using both the international and national poverty lines stalled during the last decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, it hovered around 45% between 2011 and 2018 using the US$ 2.15 line. However, rising population trends meant that the absolute number of people in poverty substantially increased after 2011 by 4.9 million people to reach 26.1 million people by 2018. Moreover, the onset of the pandemic saw at least 3 million people pushed into poverty in Tanzania (World Bank, 2024). This paper examines the presence of certain macro-level crises (climate-induced shocks and stressors, economic crises including during COVID-19, and political violence) and their relationship with household poverty dynamics in Tanzania using five large datasets: • five waves of the Tanzania National Panel Survey (TNPS), from 2008 to 2019; • the Global Flood Observatory yearly data, from 2008 to 2018; • the Climatic Research Unit Time Series (CRU TS) yearly data on drought, from 2008 to 2021; • the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) yearly data from 2008 to 2022; and • the High Frequency Phone Surveys, comprising 17 rounds of data between 2020 and 2024. Contextualising movements into and out of poverty within a backdrop of increasingly complex crises requires bringing together poverty correlates of ‘people’, focused on demographics and livelihoods, and ‘place’, related to the broader contexts that might inhibit poverty escapes, including crises. This approach is critical to ensure that pro-poor initiatives are sufficiently risk informed to help prevent impoverishment and propel escapes from poverty that can be sustained over time.