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Probabilistic Risk Assessment
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AbstractThis article summarizes the formal approach to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of complex engineered systems. It is important to stress that the main objective of performing a PRA is not necessarily the estimation of the actual risk values; rather it is the determination of those elements of the system that substantially contribute to the estimated risks, characterization of uncertainties associated with such estimates, and assessment of the effectiveness of the various risk reduction strategies available. Performing PRA for a complex engineered system is a considerably intense and time‐consuming process that requires coordinated cooperation of different individuals and subject matter experts from research, engineering, and operations all the way to decision‐making and regulatory authorities. The main goal of this article, however, is to provide the readers with a high‐level, application‐independent overview of the major elements of a formal PRA. In the first section, critical concepts have been defined and the PRA process has been outlined. In the remainder of the article, a step‐by‐step procedure for conducting a PRA has been discussed, including limitations of each step. In each section, appropriate references for further details about the PRA process have been discussed.
Title: Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Description:
AbstractThis article summarizes the formal approach to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of complex engineered systems.
It is important to stress that the main objective of performing a PRA is not necessarily the estimation of the actual risk values; rather it is the determination of those elements of the system that substantially contribute to the estimated risks, characterization of uncertainties associated with such estimates, and assessment of the effectiveness of the various risk reduction strategies available.
Performing PRA for a complex engineered system is a considerably intense and time‐consuming process that requires coordinated cooperation of different individuals and subject matter experts from research, engineering, and operations all the way to decision‐making and regulatory authorities.
The main goal of this article, however, is to provide the readers with a high‐level, application‐independent overview of the major elements of a formal PRA.
In the first section, critical concepts have been defined and the PRA process has been outlined.
In the remainder of the article, a step‐by‐step procedure for conducting a PRA has been discussed, including limitations of each step.
In each section, appropriate references for further details about the PRA process have been discussed.
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