THE IMPACT OF HIGH INFLATION ON FOOD SECURITY AND POVERTY IN NIGERIA 

This study examines the impact of high inflation on food security and poverty in Nigeria, focusing on the interplay between food price inflation, poverty levels, and key macroeconomic factors. The objectives are threefold: to analyse the impact of high inflation on food security, to examine the relationship between food price inflation and poverty levels, and to identify the key factors contributing to food price inflation. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for long-run analysis, the study finds that while inflation has a negative but statistically insignificant effect on food price inflation, it is the exchange rate that significantly exacerbates food price inflation, thereby impacting food security. Agricultural output is found to play a mitigating role in food price inflation, although its effect is not statistically significant. The relationship between food price inflation and poverty is complex, with higher food price inflation unexpectedly correlating with reduced poverty levels, possibly due to specific economic activities benefiting certain income groups. Unemployment emerges as a significant driver of poverty, emphasizing the need for job creation policies. The exchange rate and income inequality exhibit insignificant effects on poverty, indicating the need for further research. The study concludes by recommending policies to stabilize the exchange rate, enhance agricultural productivity, and address unemployment to mitigate the adverse effects of high inflation on food security and poverty in Nigeria.