How the Digital Economy Reduces Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Mechanisms, Threshold Effects, and Policy Implications

The problem of agricultural environmental pollution is increasingly serious, and carbon emissions have become an important form of pollution that must be controlled. This study aims to explore the impact mechanism and heterogeneity of the digital economy on China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, an empirical analysis was conducted using two-way fixed effect models, moderating effect models, and panel threshold models, revealing that the development of the digital economy is significantly and negatively associated with agricultural carbon emission intensity. However, the emission reduction effect is restricted by a complex moderation and threshold framework. Specifically, the improvement of human capital may lead to a decreasing trend in the emission reduction effect of the digital economy, implying the existence of a potential “efficiency rebound” effect. The regional innovation environment can significantly enhance the emission reduction effect of the digital economy, and this effect is most significant when there is both high human capital and a superior innovation environment. In addition, the emission reduction effect of the digital economy exhibits threshold characteristics and is optimal when agricultural technology progress reaches an intermediate level; an institutional environment can play an effective role at the intermediate level, but its independent emission reduction effect tends to be saturated under a highly perfect institutional environment. These findings provide new evidence for understanding the complex relationship between the digital economy and agricultural carbon emissions and provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the formulation of differentiated agricultural low-carbon development policies.