How Substantive Policy Outcomes Affect Partisan Animosity

Out-partisan animosity in the United States has grown, yet its root causes remain challenging to disentangle even with experimental designs. One perspective provides evidence for a model where identity and partisan loyalty are the dominant forces driving animosity. An alternate view shows how such evidence could be observationally equivalent to a model where policy and substance were what truly mattered. In this study, I draw on a novel theoretical argument to design an experiment that isolates a unique effect of substance on animosity. Using a vignette-style design adapted from prior studies, I measure levels of animosity toward individuals whose partisanship and policy stances vary. I test whether animosity increases in conditions where elected officials are shown to have greater control over policy outcomes (low noise context), compared to conditions where they have less control (high noise context). The results indicate that policy disagreement in low noise contexts result in a unique increase in interpersonal animosity illustrating an effect solely attributable to substance.