Efficiencies in Physical Talent Identification Among Australian Adolescents: A Retrospective, Cross-Sectional Observational Study

Background: Talent identification (TID) programmes aim to detect adolescents with high physical potential, yet the efficiency of finding high-performance talent across different testing environments in an Australian context is unknown. The current study aim was to calculate the likelihood of participants scoring at or above the 90th percentile in anthropometric or physical performance measures across different testing settings. Methods: We analysed retrospective, cross-sectional physical and performance data from 10,134 Australian adolescents aged 12–17 years (4427 girls; 5707 boys) tested in either schools (2992; 3500), advertised come-and-try TID “Select” sessions (1235; 1622), or community-based amateur sports clubs (200; 585). Standardised measures used across all settings included height, body mass, and five physical performance tests of strength, speed, agility, leg power and aerobic fitness. We used a threshold of “higher physical performance” or “physical talent” as an age- and sex-specific ≥90th percentile ranking in any of the performance tests when compared against our international normative database. Anthropometry measures were also compared using the same approach across settings. Results: Chi-square tests showed girls had significantly higher (p < 0.001) prevalence of ≥90th percentile scores in all performance results in Select, and all except speed in Sport settings compared to Schools testing. No differences were found for either height or body mass across settings (p = 0.078 and 0.17, respectively). Boys exhibited smaller differences, with Sport settings yielding significantly higher sprint and agility scores ≥90th percentile (p < 0.05), relative to both Schools and Select testing environments. Differences were found for height and body mass across settings (p < 0.001 for both analyses, respectively). Conclusions: Select environments enhance the identification of physically talented girls, while boys demonstrate broader distribution of performance talent across settings. Findings inform resource allocation for future TID programmes when the primary aim is to maximise the efficiency of finding higher-performance physical talent relative to the number of tests conducted.