Upscaling Soil Salinization in Keriya Oasis Using Bayesian Belief Networks

Soil salinization in oasis areas of arid regions is recognized as a dynamic and multifaceted environmental threat influenced by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, 13 spatiotemporal predictors derived from field surveys and remote sensing are utilized to construct a spatial probabilistic model of salinization. A Bayesian Belief Network is integrated with spline interpolation in ArcGIS to map the likelihood of salinization, while Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) is applied to analyze the interactions among multiple drivers. The test results of this model indicate that its average sensitivity exceeds 80%, confirming its robustness. Salinization risk is categorized into degradation (35–79% probability), stability (0–58%), and improvement (0–48%) classes. Notably, 58.27% of the 1836.28 km2 Keriya Oasis is found to have a 50–79% chance of degradation, whereas only 1.41% (25.91 km2) exceeds a 50% probability of remaining stable, and improvement probabilities are never observed to surpass 50%. Slope gradient and soil organic matter are identified by PLS-SEM as the strongest positive drivers of degradation, while higher population density and coarser soil textures are found to counteract this process. Spatially explicit probability maps are generated to provide critical spatiotemporal insights for sustainable oasis management, revealing the complex controls and limited recovery potential of soil salinization.