Fiscal Policy and Environment: A Long-Run Multivariate Empirical Analysis of Ecological Footprint in Pakistan.

Abstract Despite differences in carbon emissions shares and differences in ecological footprint patterns of each nation, these differences are guaranteed to show similar features in long run, thus making it a global issue.An increase in economic growth contributes to an increase in waste production with an impact on environmental degradation and climate change. An ecological footprint is a relatively comprehensive measure than previously used CO2 emission as an environmental proxy as it includes comprehensive multi-facets environmental indicators because ecological footprint includes built-up land, CO2 emission, cropland, fishing ground, grazing land, and forest products which has included all environmental dimensions. This research has focused to empirically investigate the long-run impact of fiscal policy on the ecological footprint in Pakistan keeping different socio-economic factors into consideration. Per annum, time-series data have been collected between 1976 and 2018. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test has been employed to determine the unit root of the data. To investigate the long-run association between fiscal policy and ecological footprint, modern econometric techniques such as Johansen co-integration test, ARDL Bounds test, different diagnostic tests, and variance decomposition analysis are used. Johnson co-integration test depicts significant long-run co-integration between fiscal policy, ecological footprint, and its major socio-economic determinants in Pakistan. Conclusion of ARDL model shows that 1% increase in public development expenditures, total population, GDP, and energy consumption increase 0.19, 2.17, 1.16, and 2.17% ecological footprint respectively in Pakistan between 1976 and 2018 and vice versa. However, it is also derived that a 1% increase in public tax and non-tax revenue and public current expenditures (in health, education, and other social sectors) shrink 0.36 and 0.013% ecological footprint in the long-run in Pakistan. The stability, reliability, and credibility of the ARDL model are found correct based on different diagnostic tests. Variance decomposition analysis also depicts fiscal policy significantly cause ecological footprint in Pakistan.