Longitudinal and Model-Based Analysis of Meat Condemnation in Sokoto Main Abattoir, Nigeria

Meat condemnation at slaughterhouses reflects the burden of animal diseases, economic losses, and potential public health risks. In northern Nigeria, however, longitudinal and model-based assessments of condemnation patterns using routine abattoir data remain limited. To quantify species- and disease-specific meat condemnation rates, assess temporal trends, and identify factors associated with condemnation at the Sokoto State Main Abattoir. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted using abattoir meat inspection records from January to June 2025. Condemnation rates per 1,000 animals slaughtered were calculated by species, disease category, and month. Temporal trends and associated factors were evaluated using negative binomial regression with an offset for slaughter volume. Model adequacy was assessed through dispersion diagnostics, multicollinearity checks, residual analyses, sensitivity analyses, and predictive calibration using observed versus model-predicted rates. A total of 317,685 animals were slaughtered during the study period, with 1,628 condemnation cases, corresponding to an overall condemnation rate of 5.12 per 1,000 animals (95% CI: 4.88–5.38). Condemnation rates varied markedly by species, with camels exhibiting the highest rates (27.4 per 1,000), followed by cattle, sheep, and goats. Disease-specific analyses identified contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, fascioliasis, hydatidosis, and tuberculosis as major contributors to condemnation. Temporal patterns demonstrated non-linear monthly variation, with elevated rates in mid-study months. The final negative binomial model showed good calibration, with close agreement between observed and predicted rates across species and diseases. Meat condemnation at the Sokoto State abattoir demonstrates substantial heterogeneity by species, disease, and time. Priority conditions such as CBPP, fascioliasis, hydatidosis, and tuberculosis-like lesions warrant targeted control efforts. These findings reinforce the value of routinely collected abattoir data as a practical and robust component of animal health surveillance in resource-limited settings.