Olive Flowering dependence on winter temperatures - linking empirical results to a dynamic model

Abstract Increasing winter temperatures jeopardize the yield of fruit trees requiring a prolonged and sufficiently cold winter to flower. Assessing the exact risk to different crop varieties is the first step in mitigating the harmful effect of climate change. Since empirically testing the impacts of many temperature scenarios is very time-consuming, quantitative predictive models could be extremely helpful in reducing the number of experiments needed. Here, we focus on olive ( Olea europaea ) – a traditional crop in the Mediterranean basin, a region expected to be severely affected by climatic change. Olive flowering and consequently yield depend on the sufficiency of cold periods and the lack of warm ones during the preceding winter. Yet, a satisfactory quantitative model forecasting its expected flowering under natural temperature conditions is still lacking. Previous models simply summed the number of ‘cold hours’ during winter, as a proxy for flowering, but exhibited only mediocre agreement with empirical flowering values, possibly because they overlooked the order of occurrence of different temperatures. We empirically tested the effect of different temperature regimes on olive flowering intensity and flowering-gene expression. To predict flowering based on winter temperatures, we constructed a dynamic model, describing the response of a putative flowering factor to the temperature signal. The crucial ingredient in the model is an unstable intermediate, produced and degraded at temperature-dependent rates. Our model accounts not only for the number of cold and warm hours but also for their order. We used sets of empirical flowering and temperature data to fit the model parameters, applying numerical constrained optimization techniques, and successfully validated the model outcomes. Our model more accurately predicts flowering under winters with warm periods yielding low-to-moderate flowering and is more robust compared to previous models. This model is the first step toward a practical predictive tool, applicable under various temperature conditions.