Climate Change Impacts on Olive Oil Production in Greece: Challenges and Pathways to Resilience

Climate change is posing significant challenges in the agricultural sector. While olive trees are well adopted to the mediterranean environment, olive oil production is being especially vulnerable due to its reliance on stable climatic conditions [1]. A recent example of drought and heatwaves in the previous two years slashed Spanish production and contributed to the doubling of olive oil prices [2]. Changes in temperature and precipitation are affecting olive tree cultivation by posing challenges in the flowering and growing season [3], as well as the soil moisture and the available water resources for irrigation.This study investigates the impacts of climate change on olive cultivation in Greece, by analyzing key climatic indicators relevant to olive cultivation, focusing on their historical trends and projected changes under mid-range (RCP4.5) and high-concentration (RCP8.5) scenarios. The analysis considers key indicators such as changes in the length of the dry season, the frequency of heat stress events, consecutive dry years, and shifts in critical flowering conditions (temperature, wind, and chilling accumulation). This research further explores soil management related sustainable agricultural practices to enhance crop resilience.This research develops representative climatic indicators and examines their evolution across multiple scenarios and time horizons to provide a comprehensive overview of the climate change challenges faced by Greek olive producers. The findings are aiming to inform the development of strategies for implementing sustainable agricultural practices that enhance resilience, ensuring the long-term viability of olive oil production in the context of climate change. [1] Kaniewski, D., Marriner, N., Morhange, C., Khater, C., Terral, J.F., Besnard, G., Otto, T., Luce, F., Couillebault, Q., Tsitsou, L. and Pourkerman, M., 2023. Climate change threatens olive oil production in the Levant. Nature Plants, 9(2), pp.219-227.[2] Reiley, L., 2023. Olive oil prices reach record highs as Spain's harvest is halved. The Washington Post, Oct. 6, 2023, pp.NA-NA.[3] Grillakis, M.G., Kapetanakis, E.G. and Goumenaki, E., 2022. Climate change implications for olive flowering in Crete, Greece: Projections based on historical data. Climatic Change, 175(1), p.7. This work is supported by MINERVA Ltd. under the research project “Assessment of climate change impacts on olive oil production and implementation of sustainable agricultural adaptation practices in Greece”.