THE GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF A STRAIT OF HORMUZ BLOCKADE ON ARAB STATES DURING THE IRAN–ISRAEL–US CONFLICT

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important maritime choke points of the current international system through which a large proportion of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports pass. With the increase of the tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States, the region has gained much importance in the geopolitical context of military confrontations, nuclear disputes, sanctions regimes, and the increasing proxy wars in the Middle East. In this sense, the threat of blockade or serious disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is not only a regional security challenge but also a serious test for the stability of the global economy and international energy security. This paper explores the geopolitical and economic consequences of a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade for the Arab Gulf states in the event of an Iran-Israel-US conflict. The paper particularly stresses on the multi-dimensional vulnerabilities of the important Arab states like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. The paper focuses especially on regional security dilemmas, hydrocarbon dependency and strategic realignments in Gulf politics, and maritime trade disruptions. The article takes a qualitative research approach to examine the broader regional and international implications of maritime instability in the Gulf. This is based on a review of geopolitical analysis, secondary literature, scholarship in strategic studies, policy reports and international energy and security assessments. The study says a prolonged blockade would cause major disruptions in global energy supply chains, increase volatility in international oil markets and increase fiscal and political stresses on Arab Gulf economies that are heavily reliant on energy exports. It further argues that such a crisis would accelerate military securitization, further transform the restructuring of alliances between regional and external powers, and increase the risks of direct interstate confrontation. The study also emphasizes the potential for more foreign naval intervention, increased great-power rivalry and major disruption of global trade and shipping networks. In the final analysis, this paper shows that any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would irrevocably alter the political architecture of the Middle East with farreaching consequences for regional peace, maritime security, international economic governance and the future balance of power in international politics.