Analysis of land productivity changes and the relative roles of driving factors in the Sudan-Sahel Region of Nigeria

Globally, about 25 percent of the total land area has been degraded, causing soil carbon and nitrous oxide released into the atmosphere, hence, land degradation is one of the most important contributors to climate change. Nigeria is listed topmost on the global land degradation danger list. Degraded land in Nigeria exceeds 238,533 square kilometers. However, Nigeria lacks a general detailed analysis of the causes of land degradation, thus hindering targeted solutions more specifically in the Sudan-Sahel Region of the country. This study analyzed the land productivity changes and driving factors in the Sudan-Sahel Region of Nigeria, between the 2001 and 2021 period. Land productivity changes were first analyzed using the NDVI-time series (2001-2021). Then, we used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend, correlation coefficient NDVI-climate, and residual trend-climate to identify the main drivers of biomass changes. The study revealed that 30.69% of Northern Nigeria displayed a significant land productivity decrease, and 27.1% indicated an increase in the land productivity. The productivity increase could be attributed to land abandonment by the farmers due to arm banditry conflicts in the Northern Nigeria since 2009. Moreover, land productivity changed mainly due to human activities and by climate factors. Hence, the land productivity status in the Sudan-Sahel Region of Nigeria decreased mainly due to human factors. Keywords: Land productivity changes. Driving factors. Nigeria. Sudan-Sahel region