Cropland Displacement Drives Carbon Emission of Grain Transport in China

Abstract Cropland displacement is a worldwide land-use phenomenon that involves replacing cropland occupied by urbanization with newly developed cropland in remote areas. Large-scale cropland displacement to some extent helps secure food supply to the growing urban population but also drives a great need for grain transport, which leads to rising energy consumption and carbon emission. Here we show a systematic evaluation of the carbon emission associated with grain transport at the prefecture-level in China in 1990 and 2015. We found that the total emission of grain transport in China more than doubled from 4.46 million-ton to 10.73 million-ton during this period. Cropland displacement contributed more than 60% of the increased carbon emission, while dietary change and population growth contributed 31.7% and 16.6%, respectively. In contrast, improvement of transport infrastructures offset 0.54 million-ton of the increased emission. Based on the research results, we provide policy suggestions on reducing grain transport carbon emission in China in terms of land use planning, grain-based value chain, as well as transport development.