Trend and CAGR Analysis of Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana

Climate change is a severe threat to agriculture sustainability and rural livelihood in India where over 51% of the net sown area is rainfed and highly vulnerable to drought ,flood and monsoon variability. recent report by the world meteorological organisation (2024), Indian meteorological department (2024) and ICAR-NICRA (2024) highlight alarming warming trends, rainfall deficiency and climate induced risk affecting over 310 districts particularly Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand and Maharashtra . monsoon rainfall in 2023 was 6% below the long-term average with East and Northeast India receiving 80% below normal rainfall (dept of Agriculture, 2024). This study adopts quantitative analysis by applying trend analysis ,line graph, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) calculation and ratio analysis and the study find that Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana performance from 2016-17 to 2023-24, sowing national farmer enrolment rising from 583 lakh to 1428 lakh nearly 2.5 times growth. budget allocation surge from 5501 crore in 2016-17 to 16,000 crore by 2021-22 with combined allocation for PMFBY and RWBCIS reached 69,515 crores in financial year 2025-26. Despite strong achievement challenges remain, including delayed settlement and exclusion like animal grazing loss which disproportionately hurt vulnerable state like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar