Understanding tropical cyclone persistence over land: a case study of cyclone Gulab

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) Gulab originated in the Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon season of 2021. Following an unusual westward trajectory, TC Gulab made landfall on the east coast of India, traversed central India, and reintensified over the Arabian Sea into TC Shaheen. This study employed an online Eulerian water vapor tracer (WVT) tool embedded within the Weather Research and Forecasting model to investigate the role of land in terms of soil moisture (SM) and land use land cover (LULC) in persistence of TC Gulab over central India. We quantified the contributions of sub-regions and dominant LULC types within the Indian subcontinent to the precipitation associated with TC Gulab. Our findings indicate that evapotranspiration across the entire Indian subcontinent contributed approximately 30% to the post-landfall precipitation associated with TC Gulab. The highest contribution originated from the northwestern region, followed by the northeast. Croplands, the dominant LULC type, were the primary contributors, followed by forests. Despite changing the dominant land cover from cropland to forest, the low-pressure system persisted over land while altering the spatial patterns of precipitation. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated a linear decrease in precipitation originating from land with decreasing SM. Notably, there is a disproportionate decline in total precipitation with decreasing SM. Further analysis separating atmospheric vapor sources into land and ocean contributions using WVT revealed a compensatory mechanism. The contribution of oceanic vapor to atmospheric vapor over land increased when SM decreased due to increase in the latent heat over ocean. However, the total atmospheric vapor remained low, ultimately leading to a lower total precipitation. Although SM plays a role, our results highlight the importance of oceanic and atmospheric processes in determining TC persistence over land. This study offers valuable insights into the dynamics of land–atmosphere interactions during low-pressure systems of TCs.