Two weeks post-operative ultrasound examination of radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistulae to predict maturity in a Chinese population

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of post-operative ultrasound examination for predicting wrist radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula maturity. Methods: All radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistulas performed in our hospital between October 2015 and December 2017 were included in this study. Ultrasound examination of radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistulas was performed 2 weeks post-surgery. Radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula maturation was defined as successful cannulation of a fistula with two needles, delivery of blood via the access route at a flow rate ⩾200 mL/min for 4 h, and dialysis via fistulae in at least six consecutive sessions. Results: Eighty-two wrist radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistulas were analyzed, of which 13 failed. Cephalic vein diameter >4.285 mm and brachial artery peak systolic velocity >134.75 cm/s were the best post-operative ultrasound predictors of radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula maturity ( p < 0.001 and p = 0.011, respectively). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the sensitivity and specificity of predicting radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula maturation were 88.4% and 92.3% for cephalic vein diameter (area under the curve = 0.939), respectively, and 82.9% and 76.9% for brachial artery peak systolic velocity (area under the curve = 0.830), respectively. All assessments predicted radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula maturity (post-operative positive predictive values: cephalic vein diameter = 98.4%, brachial artery peak systolic velocity = 95%) much better than radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula failure (post-operative negative predictive values: cephalic vein diameter = 60%, brachial artery peak systolic velocity = 45.5%). Conclusion: Two weeks after surgery, a new wrist radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula with a cephalic vein diameter >4.285 mm was considered suitable for dialysis. A high-risk arteriovenous fistula failure would benefit from early intervention.