Hydro-climatic variability and change in the Ferlo catchment (Senegal)

In Senegal, climate change raises concerns about the availability of reliable climate information to guide policymakers in developing effective adaptation strategies and reducing population vulnerability. To address this, we examined hydro-climatic variability and change in the Ferlo catchment, a region of socio-economic importance. Using observational data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and outputs from regional climate models (REMO, CCLM4-8-17, and RCA4) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, we assessed future climate trends. The results indicate a significant decrease in average and cumulative rainfall, marked by lower isohyets and a southward shift across the basin. The rainy season is projected to shorten between 2006 and 2100, lasting around 85 days in the north, 90 in the center, and 98 in the south compared to 89, 94, and 103 days respectively during 1976–2005. Additionally, a reduction in mean daily rainfall intensity from north to south is projected. These changes highlight the urgent need for adaptation. Policymakers must revise agricultural calendars, improve water resource management, and adapt livestock practices. Furthermore, implementing social safety nets and early warning systems will be essential to protect vulnerable communities from increased climate-related risks and ensure resilience in the face of growing climatic challenges. Keywords: Hydro-climatic indices, climate change, Variability, Ferlo Catchment.