Genome size and the extinction of small populations

Abstract Although extinction is ubiquitous throughout the history of life, insight into the factors that drive extinction events are often difficult to decipher. Most studies of extinction focus on inferring causal factors from past extinction events, but these studies are constrained by our inability to observe extinction events as they occur. Here, we use digital evolution to avoid these constraints and study “extinction in action”. We focus on the role of genome size in driving population extinction, as previous work both in comparative genomics and digital evolution has shown a correlation between genome size and extinction. We find that extinctions in small populations are caused by large genome size. This relationship between genome size and extinction is due to two genetic mechanisms that increase a population’s lethal mutational burden: large genome size leads to both an increased lethal mutation rate and an increased likelihood of stochastic reproduction errors and non-viability. We further show that this increased lethal mutational burden is directly due to genome expansions, as opposed to subsequent adaptation after genome expansion. These findings suggest that large genome size can enhance the extinction likelihood of small populations and may inform which natural populations are at an increased risk of extinction.