Spatiotemporal Analysis of Heat Waves in Jordan

Abstract Heatwaves are durations of relatively extreme high temperatures. The literature presents multiple methods and criteria of identifying heatwaves based on Temperature exceedance parameter, and a duration parameter. All these presented criteria when applied result in different characteristics measures of heatwaves. Heatwaves are usually studied to identify their impact on one of the affected sectors (Human health, Energy consumption, Ecological conditions, urban air quality, environmental conditions, and any other sector that might be impacted). However, the literature provides little assistance in selecting which criteria to use for which purpose. In this work the idea of using different criterion based on the impacted sector being studied was introduced, we also defined a best fit heatwave criterion to assess the impact of heatwaves on human health based on the existing literature. We then use this criterion to identify heatwaves in 13 stations in Jordan and study the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distributions and development of these heatwaves throughout the study duration (1970-2005). The result of the study shows a dramatic increase in heatwaves characteristics across Jordan. The area subjected to the highest change was the Jordanian capital (Amman), with an increase of 7 folds in number of heatwave days per year, 3 folds in number of heatwaves per year, and a 10% increase in the average temperature in the yearly maximum heatwave. The trends showed no signs of slowing down in the heatwaves’ characteristic change. When projected Amman is expected to have 41 heatwave days and 9.8 heatwaves per year by 2050.