Characteristics of debris flow dynamics and prediction of the hazardous area in Bangou Village, Yanqing District, Beijing, China

Abstract Debris flow is one of the most common types of geological disasters in China. Owing to the influence of topography, geomorphology, geological conditions, human activity, and rainfall debris flow disasters frequently occur in the mountainous areas of Beijing. The research on debris flow in the Beijing area focuses on rainfall and risk evaluation, material sources, and early warning and prevention of debris flow. However, there are few studies on the development characteristics of single-gully debris flow and the prediction of hazardous areas in the Beijing area. Therefore, we chose the debris flow of Bangou Village in Yanqing District of Beijing as the research object. We analyzed the recharge conditions in the ditch domain and predicted the extent of the hazardous area around the gully, providing suggestions for control measures. The dynamic reserves of the loose deposits in the debris flow gully, currently in the development stage, were estimated as 15.48 × 104 m3, representing four supply sources: artificial deposits, alluvium and diluvium, residual slope deposits, and collapse. The peak flow is 24.49 m3/s for a 10-year rainfall event, 27.64 m3/s for a 20-year rainfall event, 31.79 m3/s for a 50-year rainfall event, and 34.93 m3/s for a 100-year rainfall event. The total amounts of solids washed out by a debris flow from the preceding events are 0.70 × 104 m3, 0.79 × 104 m3, 0.91 × 104 m3, and 1.00 × 104 m3, respectively. The size of the debris flow is small, with a maximum hazardous area of 0.2810 km2. We conclude that a small debris flow outbreak in the Bangou Village gully is possible. We expect that the results of this study will provide basic information and help improve debris flow research in Beijing.