Spatial-temporal temperature modelling: example of Goriška Brda viticultural region (Slovenia)

Climate change presents an increasing threat to agricultural, with significant impacts in viticulture. Rising temperatures affect grape yield, grape composition, and wine quality. This study aims to assess future temperature increase at Goriška Brda (Slovenia) viticultural region. Temperature data sets were retrieved from three weather stations located within and in vicinity of Goriška Brda. Future temperature simulation for the period 2041–2060 were evaluated under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using averages of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). The future simulated temperatures showed an average temperature increase of approximately 2.0 °C at all three weather stations for 2041–2060 compared to the reference period (1950–2000). The assessed temperature increase highlights the need for adaptation strategies in Goriška Brda. The findings of this study provide valuable insights to support decision-making among winemakers by identifying appropriate adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of viticulture under future climate change conditions.