Spatial-temporal analysis of precipitation extremes over China during 1961–2019

Abstract Understanding the spatial-temporal occurrences of precipitation extremes and their trends is important for reducing the risk associated with extreme events, especially under anthropogenic climate change. Here, leveraging a recently proposed gridded dataset for precipitation across China during 1961–2019, we comprehensively investigated the spatial-temporal characterization of precipitation extremes in China by analyzing 12 intensity, frequency, percentile-based threshold and duration indices. To avoid the significant modelling complexity introduced by intricate factors, this study used precipitation-only data and applied the entropy principle to modelling precipitation extremes. Using the Maxent model to explore the potential distribution patterns of precipitation extremes revealed the great applicability of the entropy principle in meteorological research. Main findings of this study include: (1) more erratic precipitation and higher frequency of droughts and floods from 2010 to 2019 throughout China, especially in Northwest China and Southwest China; (2) in the past 59 years, all extreme precipitation indicators, except CDD (Consecutive Dry Days), generally show an increasing trend across China; (3) precipitation extremes in Northwest China (especially in its basin areas) and in the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau are important possible manifestations of climate change in Northwest China. These new findings can help stakeholders to cope with the challenges brought by extreme precipitation in the context of global warming. Graphical abstract