Map of ecosystems of the northern macroslope of Kungei Alatau ridge and assessment of climate change trends

This study presents a comprehensive ecosystem mapping of the northern macroslope of the Kungei Alatau Ridge in southeastern Kazakhstan, a region characterized by complex high-altitude landscapes influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors. A medium-scale ecosystem map (1: 500,000) covering 3,020.44 km² and a large-scale map (1 : 10,000) of a test site within the Kolsai Kolderi National Park were developed (Fig. 2, 3). The mapping was based on field botanical and soil surveys, interpretation of Landsat TM and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, SRTM elevation models, and GIS analysis. An expert classification approach was used to identify and differentiate ecosystems using NDVI and SAVI vegetation indices. Fifteen ecosystem types were identified, grouped into natural terrestrial (95 %), anthropogenically transformed (3 %), and aquatic (2 %) categories, distributed across nival, subnival, forest, meadow, and steppe zones. A pronounced altitudinal zonation was observed, with high-mountain ecosystems occupying approximately 30 % of the area. In the test site area, forest, meadow, and juniper ecosystems predominate, with evidence of natural regeneration in previously degraded zones. Climatic trends based on data from the hydrometeorological station “Zhalanash” (1699 m a. s. l.) show a steady increase in mean annual precipitation (+24 mm) and average temperature (+0.4°C), particularly in spring months (Fig. 4). Between 2002 and 2024, the area of glaciers and firn fields decreased by 85%, and the lower boundary of glaciation rose by over 400 meters (Fig. 5). These changes have initiated vegetation colonization in deglaciated areas, as reflected in the growing NDVI and SAVI values in the 2800–3233 m elevation band since 2017, indicating a shift in ecosystem boundaries and vegetation structure (Fig. 6). Approximately 53 % of the mapped area lies within the boundaries of the Kolsai Kolderi National Park, providing partial protection. However, pressures from uncontrolled grazing, expanding tourist infrastructure, and recreation continue to affect ecological stability. The developed ecosystem maps offer a valuable tool for biodiversity monitoring, climate change assessment, and strategic conservation planning in the mountain regions of Kazakhstan.