Revealing suitable habitats for Juniperus procera and Olea europaea tree species in the remnant dry Afromontane forests of Ethiopia: Insights from ensemble species distribution modeling approach

AbstractHuman activities and climate change pose a significant threat to the dry Afromontane forests in Ethiopia, which are essential for millions of people both economically and ecologically. In Ethiopia, trees are planted elsewhere even if they are not likely to be well suited to the area. This study aims to identify the suitable habitat for the most exploited Juniperus procera (J. procera) and Olea europaea (O. europaea) tree species in northern Ethiopia. As inputs, least correlated temperature, moisture, soil, and topographic variables were selected through a stepwise procedure. The study evaluated five individual and ensemble models using the area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) values. The ensemble model outperformed with mean AUC of 0.95 and TSS of 0.78 for J. procera, while securing the second position for O. europaea with an AUC of 0.88 and TSS of 0.71. Climatic factors emerged as the most influential, followed by soil and topography. Suitable areas for both species were found when Isothermality (Bio3) values range from 52% to 62%, temperature seasonality (Bio4) of 16–29°C. Moreover, well drained soils with soil texture not heavier than sandy clay, and soil organic carbon ranging from 5 to 42 g kg−1 were found suitable. The optimal suitable altitude for J. procera and O. europaea was determined to be 2200–2600 and 2100–2500 m.a.s.l., respectively. The suitable areas for J. procera and O. europaea were estimated to be 3130 and 3946 km2, respectively. Furthermore, potential plantation areas were identified beyond Desa'a and Hugumbirda Grat‐Kahsu protected forests, covering 2721 km2 (86.9%) for J. procera and 3576 km2 (90.6%) for O. europaea. These findings hold significance for the conservation and sustainable management of these valuable tree species in northern Ethiopia. We recommend implementing a similar approach for other locally restricted dry Afromontane tree species with wider potential distribution.