Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Built-up Area Expansion in South-Western Nigerian City Suburbs

Abstract This study analysed the spatiotemporal changes in the suburbs of South-Western Nigerian cities from 1998 to 2024, with the aim of informing land use management and enabling stakeholders to address associated physical planning challenges. Three state capitals and their suburbs were purposively selected for the study: Akure (Ilara-Mokin), Osogbo (Owode-Ede), and Ado-Ekiti (Iyin-Ekiti).The study employed ArcGIS Desktop 10.3, Erdas Imagine 2014, and ENVI 5.0 for Land use/land cover classification and change detection, and least square techniques were employed to analyze trends in land use/land cover changes.The results revealed a notable increase in built-up area expansion across all the suburbs: Ilara-Mokin (4.75km², 59.45%). Owode-Ede (8.68km², 84.03%), and Iyin-Ekiti (5.25km², 75.14%), while other land uses declined, negatively affecting agricultural land and farming. The least squares model revealed a positive linear relationship between year (x) and built-up area expansion(y) as follows: Ilara-Mokin, y = 1.63 + 0.155x, y = 1.35 + 0.326x. and Iyin-Ekitiy = 1.17 + 0.155x,indicating an increasing trend in built-up area expansion between 1998 and 2024.The study concludes that the built-up expansion in the suburbs is happening at an unprecedented rate, resulting in the decline of other land uses, which may affect the livelihood of suburban dwellers who depend on agriculture. Therefore, proactive planning procedures are recommended to mitigate the potential negative consequences of the built-up area expansion in the suburbs.