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Lotteries, Insensitivity, and Closure
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(1) Why does it seem that we don’t know we will lose a lottery, while it seems we do know other things with respect about which we are more likely to be wrong? (2) And do we really fail to know that we will lose a lottery, while we do know those other things? This chapter defends an insensitivity answer to (1): You seem not to know that you will lose the lottery because you would have believed you would lose even if you were the winner. As for (2), a solution to this lottery puzzle is defended on which you do know that you will lose the lottery, according to ordinary standards for knowledge (unless you are the winner, in which case you are rational to think you know that you will lose). Key to this solution is defending a certain understanding of the closure principle for knowledge.
Title: Lotteries, Insensitivity, and Closure
Description:
(1) Why does it seem that we don’t know we will lose a lottery, while it seems we do know other things with respect about which we are more likely to be wrong? (2) And do we really fail to know that we will lose a lottery, while we do know those other things? This chapter defends an insensitivity answer to (1): You seem not to know that you will lose the lottery because you would have believed you would lose even if you were the winner.
As for (2), a solution to this lottery puzzle is defended on which you do know that you will lose the lottery, according to ordinary standards for knowledge (unless you are the winner, in which case you are rational to think you know that you will lose).
Key to this solution is defending a certain understanding of the closure principle for knowledge.
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