Urban flood and waterlogging disaster simulation using SCS-CN model based on land use change in the Karst region of North China: A case of Jinan city

Studying flood and waterlogging disaster risk induced by land use change would have implicational significance to urban planning and sustainability. Like other Karst landscape region, Jinan city has been also suffering from the threat of flood and waterlogging disaster, which is located in the Karst region of North China. In this study, we analyze the spatial and temporal land use change in Jinan city during 2000—2020 based on RS, GIS and field investigation. Further, using the SCS-CN model and GIS, we simulate flood and waterlogging disaster based on land use change. This study extends beyond merely furnishing scientific data support for local governmental efforts in disaster prevention and mitigation to urban flood and waterlogging. Human encroachment on Karst mountainous areas makes these urban communities more vulnerable to flood and waterlogging hazards. Also, the urban and Karst ecosystems are fragile ecosystems, whose integration and overlap will bring about the double vulnerability for the urban ecosystem. All these could raise higher management requirements for the sustainable development of Karst urban mountainous regions in North China. In future, strengthening more protection in Karst mountainous regions of North China will become the top concern of various local governments.