A világmodellezés 50 éve

Összefoglalás. A tanulmány a világmodellezés 50 évéről ad áttekintést a legismertebb és módszertanilag újítást hozó világmodellek rövid ismertetésén keresztül. A világmodellezés fogalmának meghatározása után sorra veszi a Római Klub és az ENSZ szervezeteiben folyó világmodellezést és a jelentős modelleket, majd pedig az online világmodellezés néhány műhelyében folyó munkákat. A bemutatott világmodellek összehasonlító elemzésével rámutat azokra az új modellezési módszertanokra és fordulópontokra, amelyek új utakat nyitottak a világmodellek készítésében és hasznosításában. A folyamatos megújulás jellemzőit a világmodellezők felfogásában és képzettségében, a világmodellezés eljárásaiban, valamint a világmodelleket ismerők és használók körében bekövetkezett változások vonatkozásában fogalmazza meg. Summary. The aim of paper is to introduce the last 50 years of world modelling through short presentation of world models that have got reputation of wide range in the world and have represented methodological innovation in the history of world modelling. For this purpose after giving definition of world modelling the paper takes one by one the world modelling activities carried out in the frame of the Club of Rome and of different organizations of UN and their most important products and the works running by some organizations of online and interactive world model building as well. Forrester-Meadows’s system dynamics model recognizing the natural resources and Ervin Laszlo’s verbal world model considering the inner human limits, and GEO models and IPCC reports that were initiated by the UN organizations and that define the sustainability and place it in the centre of world model building and the organizations of online world model building as Millennium project, JAVA Climate Model, Pardee Center for International Futures and Futures Platform are payed special attention. These world models have defined the characteristics of complex world problems rooting in both natural and human/social limits. They show how the world is running into the catastrophe in the future if the humanity does not reflect to these limits at both the individual and community levels and finally they have got to give definition of requirements concerning sustainability and tasks needed to materialize them, and to the necessity of shift in world views and social values. The study draws attention to the methodological issues of world modelling came to the front of research topics at the beginning of 21st century especially to the fact why and in what ways the idea concerning the paradigm shift in the world modelling have become the main methodological problem. In what ways the online and interactive world modelling can stimulate that every person and community to be able to explore and/or construct their own world model and recognize that everybody has to do something and to change its behaviour for survival of the human civilization. The paper emphasizes methodological solutions and turning points that has opened new ways in the process of world modelling and the application of their outcomes by the way of comparative analysis of world models and changing ideas focusing on paradigm shift. In the end the main characteristics of continuous renewal are shaped by the emphasis of the changes happened in the ideas of world views and qualification of world modellers, in the methodology of word model building and in the circle of users and participants and people who becomes acquainted with world models or world model building.