Predictors and Persistence of Belief Change in Response to Scientific Evidence: A Replication and Extension of Anglin (2019)

Although studies on belief perseverance suggest that people resist evidence opposing their beliefs, recent research found that people were receptive to clear, belief-disconfirming evidence. However, this research measured belief change immediately after presenting the evidence, and belief change varied considerably across participants. In three preregistered experiments, we replicated and extended prior work, testing whether belief change in response to empirical evidence on polarized topics persists one day later and variables associated with belief change, including the (in)consistency of evidence with prior views, evidence strength, and individual differences in beliefs, affect, thinking and reasoning strategies, and perceptions of the evidence and science. Overall, participants shifted their beliefs in response to evidence on capital punishment (Study 1), gun control (Study 2), and video games and aggression (Study 3) and maintained this change the next day. Belief change primarily occurred among those presented with belief-inconsistent evidence. Participants shifted their beliefs more in response to stronger vs. weaker evidence but were more sensitive to the evidence strength initially than the next day. Perceived evidence quality and scientific certainty were consistently associated with belief change, whereas belief commitment, actively open-minded thinking, social desirability, and positive and negative affect were not. People may be receptive to belief-inconsistent evidence, especially if they view it as strong and science as certain, irrespective of general individual differences in receptivity. Further research is needed on the persistence and predictors of belief change in response to evidence over a longer time frame and across topics, contexts, and samples.