Finance Digitization in Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries: An Empirical Investigation and Prediction of Future Outcomes

Previous studies have suggested that digitization of finance leads to growth in the economy in several middle- and high-income countries, but research in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs) remains limited. This research aimed to examine the trends, barriers, relationships, and prospects of finance digitization in LLMICs. This study used analytical and descriptive cross-sectional study designs. Sixty-six countries were purposively selected based on the available data on the Global Findex and the World Development Indicators databases. Descriptive analysis was used to identify the trends in the finance digitization indicators, correlation analysis was used to assess the nature of the association between finance digitization and the economy, and exponential smoothing was used to predict future outcomes in digital finance. The results indicated that the adoption and utilization of finance digitization increased in these countries, but the growth rates varied by region and income group. Low-income countries reported the highest rates of subscriptions to digital finance accounts and storing money in digital accounts, while lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) reported higher rates of inbound/outbound digital transactions, borrowings, and savings using digital channels. Sub-Saharan Africa reported the highest rates of digital finance account subscriptions, digital savings, and digital borrowings, while Europe and Central Asia reported the highest rates of in/out digital transactions. Barriers to digitization in these countries included poor access to the internet, high cost of digital finance products, and lack of a mobile phone, with low-income countries facing more challenges. The analysis revealed a negative significant relationship between finance digitization and Gross National Income growth and a positive significant correlation between finance digitization and other economic growth indicators (gross savings and Gross Domestic Product). Finance digitization was predicted to continue to rise in these countries for the next decade. The study recommended that policymakers should promote the adoption of digital finance and address the barriers and risks of finance digitization in LLMICs, as it had positive effects on economic growth.