Relating farmers’ perceptions to long term dynamics in maize ( Zea mays L.) production: The production of improved maize is coming to a standstill in central Malawi

Abstract Maize production, area and yield dynamics were assessed based on farmer perceptions and production data from 2004/05-2018/19 using 36 000 households in Salima, central Malawi. The results showed that farmers used 16, six and two varieties for hybrid, Open-pollinated varieties (OPV) and local maize respectively. Farmers sourced Hybrid and OPV maize seed from Private Agro dealers while local maize was own-sourced. Farmers preferred local maize for being cheap, good taste, low storage costs, and pest resistance although low yielding. They preferred hybrid and OPV maize for high yielding and early maturity despite demanding high storage costs, pest susceptibility, and low flour. From 2004/05-2018/19, the area under local and OPV maize reduced by 61% and 12% respectively, while that of hybrid maize increased by 49%. However, the consistent decrease in area for hybrid and OPV and significant increase of that of local maize from 2014/15-2018/19 may signal a catastrophic maize production in the region. From 2019/20-2025/26 production of all maize was projected at 44 172 tons by 2025/26, representing a 1.6% increase from the base year 2019/20. This increase will be due to favorable climatic conditions and not increase in area or yield. If maize yield was improved by 30% production would increase to 110 430 tons representing 67% of the food requirement in the study area. The current maize production trend in Salima does not guarantee food security prospects. Therefore, policymakers should consider reviewing the past interventions (input pricing, promotion strategies, sustainable practices, policies) in the maize subsector to enhance maize productivity.