Population dynamics of decision making in temperate bacteriophages

Abstract Due to their ability to choose between lysis and lysogeny, temperate bacteriophages represent a classic model system to study the molecular basis of decision making. The coinfection of individual bacteria by multiple, genetically identical phages is known to alter the infection outcome and favor lysogeny over lytic development. However, it is not clear what role the ability of individual phages to sense and respond to coinfections plays in the phage-host infection dynamics at the population level. To address this question, we developed a full-stochastic model to capture the interaction dynamics between billions of bacteria and phages with single-cell and -phage resolution. While, at the level of individual bacteria, the probability of coinfections depends mainly on the phage concentration at the time of infection, the average number of coinfections at the population level is primarily determined by the relative growth rate of phage. Because the maximum attainable phage growth rate is constrained by basic life history parameters, the average number of coinfections has an upper bound of around two. However, for a broad range of conditions, the average number of coinfections stays well below this value. Consequently, we find that coinfections provide only very limited information to individual phages about the state of the infection at the population level. Nevertheless, this information can still provide a strong competitive advantage for phages that base fate decisions on the number of coinfections.