Modeling Land Use and Biodiversity in Northern Thailand

Rapid deforestation has occurred in northern Thailand over the last few decades, and it is expected to continue. Besides deforestation, climate change has become a global threat to biodiversity in recent years and in the future. The government has implemented conservation policies aimed at maintaining a forest cover of 50% or more and has been promoting agribusiness, forestry, and tourism development in the region. The goal of this chapter was to analyze the likely effects of various directions of development on the region. Specific objectives were to: (1) forecast land-use change and land-use patterns across the region based on trend, integrated-management, and conservation-oriented scenarios, (2) analyze the consequences of deforestation and climate change for biodiversity, and (3) identify areas most susceptible to future deforestation and high biodiversity loss. The chapter combined a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a model for biodiversity assessment (GLOBIO3). The Dyna-CLUE model was used to determine the spatial patterns of land-use change for the three scenarios, viz trend, integrated management, and conservation oriented. The methodology developed for the Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework (GLOBIO3) was used to estimate biodiversity intactness expressed as the remaining relative mean species abundance (MSA) of the original species relative to their abundance in the primary vegetation. The results revealed that forest cover in 2050 would mainly persist in the West and upper North of the region, which is rugged and not easily accessible. In contrast, the highest deforestation was expected to occur in the lower north. MSA values decreased from 0.52 in 2002 to 0.45, 0.46 and 0.48, respectively, for the three scenarios in 2050. The expected MSA values were lower than the predefined target of 30% at outside protected areas for all land use scenarios. The lowest value is found for the trend scenario (20.8%). The expected MSA for trend scenario is below the predefined target of 70% due to high habitat loss and severe fragmentation from road development in the future. Nevertheless, the MSA values for integrated and conservation-oriented scenarios nearly meet the representation goal. Based on the model outcomes, conservation measures were recommended to minimize the impacts of deforestation on biodiversity. The model results indicated that only establishing a fixed percentage of forest was not efficient in conserving biodiversity. Measures aimed at the conservation of locations with high biodiversity values, limited fragmentation, and careful consideration of road expansion in pristine forest areas may be more efficient to achieve biodiversity conservation.