Modeling the dynamics of undernutrition prevalence in countries worldwide

Mass starvation as a phenomenon has influenced and is now affecting all aspects of society. It is impossible to imagine a developed country where people cannot provide themselves with basic food needs. The current global problem of hunger in the world can be described as a legacy of the uneven historical development of the world’s countries, where exploiting and exploited countries existed, where the former were more likely to become developed countries that solved the problem of hunger, and the latter countries where this problem is still relevant. This article is aimed at identifying and differentiating trends in the dynamics of hunger in modern countries of the world. Thus, from 2001 to 2017, a gradual decrease in malnutrition was observed on average in the world. But since 2018, the problem of malnutrition has become acute again: malnutrition in the world has begun to increase, which can be attributed to a variety of global and regional systemic crises such as wars, climate change and rising food prices. This article analyzes the dynamics of malnutrition in 169 countries around the world based on the prevalence of malnutrition of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Schedules of the time series of malnutrition have been compiled for each of the countries and, based on them, a classification of the dynamics of malnutrition in the countries of the world for 2001–2022 has been proposed. For countries with a steady downward trend in the prevalence of malnutrition, a forecast has been made for the likely year of malnutrition elimination. For countries with systemic negative dynamics, the average level of malnutrition dynamics over the study period was determined. For countries characterized by negative dynamics in the prevalence of malnutrition after a particular year, the latter was defined as a crisis year. The countries that eliminated malnutrition during the study period and the countries where there was no malnutrition were identified. Based on this classification, a map of the dynamics of malnutrition in the countries of the world for 2001–2022 has been compiled. The article presents the experience of modeling an urgent problem of malnutrition that requires a solution for the sustainable development of the whole world. There are huge imbalances in access to food among the population in the world, which significantly slows down global development and causes migration, epidemics and conflicts. The proposed model can help to look at this problem through the current situation of the development of the problem of malnutrition in a particular region or in a particular country based on statistical indicators of malnutrition.