Temperature-Dependent Oviposition Models for Monochamus saltuarius (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

Monochamus saltuarius Gebler is a serious insect pest in Europe and East Asia regions, including Portugal, Spain, China, Japan, and Korea. It transfers the pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus to conifer trees, resulting in pine wilt disease (PWD). As temperature is a key factor influencing insect population dynamics, temperature-dependent models describing M. saltuarius oviposition could estimate population growth potential and evaluate outbreak risks. In this study, the longevity and fecundity of M. saltuarius females were measured under constant temperature conditions ranging from 20 to 32 °C, and temperature-dependent models were constructed. The longevity of M. saltuarius females ranged from 83.36 days to 22.92 days, with a total fecundity of 141 eggs and 52.77 eggs at 20 °C and 32 °C, respectively. To describe oviposition, we used a single-phase simulation describing oviposition as a single model and a two-phase simulation describing sexual maturation and oviposition as two separate models. These models effectively described M. saltuarius oviposition (r2 > 0.96) under constant temperature conditions, with the two-phase simulation demonstrating greater accuracy overall. Such models could facilitate assessments of PWD risks. The modeling framework of this study shows potential for predicting threats from various forestry and agricultural pests.