The Empirical Influence of Tibetan Plateau Spring Soil Moisture on South Asian Monsoon Onset: A Linear Diagnostic Perspective

Abstract The South Asian high (SAH) location and intensity are linked with the latent heating of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Yangtze River basin. The relationship between SAH variability and its impact on South Asian monsoon (SAM) onset is rarely linked with TP soil moisture. This study uses remotely sensed soil moisture and reanalysis products to quantify the relationship between the TP spring (April–June) soil moisture with SAH and SAM onset during 1988–2008. The results show that the TP spring soil moisture and monsoon onset indices are negatively correlated (R < −0.65), whereas the SAH exhibits a significant positive correlation (R ≥ 0.70) with TP soil moisture. The monsoon onset shows a difference of 20–25 days between the early- and late-onset composites. Significant positive (negative) soil moisture anomalies persist over the TP during the early (late) onset followed by positive (negative) LH (SH) anomalies during early (late)-onset composites. The TP thermal forcing exhibited positive anomalies during the early (late)-onset composites implying significant soil moisture control over the diabatic heating, which favors vertical ascent over the eastern plateau. Such a pattern leads to an earlier formation and movement of the SAH toward the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southwestward of the TP. Before the early and late monsoon onset composites, the SAH pentad evolution drives the lower-tropospheric westerlies/easterlies toward continental SA. In the Indian Ocean the wind shear and transition from prevailing easterlies into westerlies during the pre-onset, onset, and post-onset pentad results in strong/weak ascent affecting the onset timing over the Arabian Sea and continental SA with less influence over the BOB monsoon onset. Significance Statement The Tibetan Plateau heating is one of the key drivers of the Asian monsoon precipitation in the surrounding regions, which has been previously studied in detail. This study explored the Tibetan Plateau spring soil moisture’s effect on South Asian monsoon onset timing. The monsoon onset timing is calculated using changes in wind direction, atmospheric temperature, and relative precipitation magnitude. Results found that the spring soil moisture substantially affects the TP thermal heating and the SA monsoon onset timing and highlights the physical processes leading to changes in the monsoon onset timing. The inclusion of soil moisture in estimating the monsoon onset timing can provide a tangible way of improving our understanding of the monsoon and associated water resources management practices.