Computational Design of Novel Selective Phosphodiesterase 4B Inhibitors from Natural Products: An Integrated Machine Learning and Structure-Based Drug Discovery Approach

Abstract Selective inhibition of phosphodiesterase 4B (PDE4B) remains a promising strategy for preserving the anti-inflammatory benefit of PDE4 inhibition in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease while reducing PDE4D-associated tolerability liabilities. This study integrated SHAP-interpretable machine learning, natural product virtual screening, hierarchical docking, post-docking MM-GBSA, isoform cross-docking, binding-pocket comparison, ADMET prediction, and 100 ns molecular dynamics simulations to identify PDE4B-selective inhibitors from the LOTUS natural product database. A Random Forest classifier trained on curated ChEMBL PDE4B bioactivity data achieved an external performance with AUC-ROC = 0.955, accuracy = 0.893, F1-score = 0.896, MCC = 0.785, and prioritized 119,698 predicted actives from 276,518 LOTUS compounds. SHAP analysis identified BertzCT and TPSA as major contributors to predicted activity. Sequential Lipinski, PAINS, and QED filtering retained 14,210 candidates for structure-based evaluation. Extra precision docking identified four leads with PDE4B docking scores of -9.123 to -12.080 kcal/mol, all outperforming roflumilast (-7.658 kcal/mol). Cross-docking and post-docking MM-GBSA supported preferential PDE4B binding for three candidates. The top lead, LTS0048837, maintained a stable PDE4B-bound pose during simulation, with comparatively stronger interaction persistence than its PDE4D complex and the roflumilast reference. These findings nominate LTS0048837 as a computationally prioritized PDE4B-selective natural product lead requiring experimental enzyme, cellular, and pharmacokinetic validation.