Psychology at the screen: The flaws of the current VAR protocol

The English Premier League claim that the introduction of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) has led to more correct decisions. However, the psychological mechanisms of the current protocol have yet to be explored, and the current study aims to do so by assessing i) the decisions of the referee at the pitch-side monitor, ii) the likelihood of the VAR intervening. It is of interest to investigate if external factors influence these decisions. 1520 matches were reviewed across 2021/22 – 2024/25 seasons where the referee was advised to consult the pitch-side monitor 250 times, overturning their original decision 95% of the time. Binary Logistic Regression found that season, home advantage, scoreline, time of decision, experience of officials, and crowd attendance did not predict the referee’s decision and season, experience of officials, and crowd attendance did not predict VAR intervention. This may appear as though officials are consistent despite contextual factors, however, the models are unlikely to distinguish between variables due to the high prevalence of overturn decisions. This may indicate that referees are primed to change their original decision under the current protocol. Instead, a captain’s or manager’s challenge may be a more appropriate method to reduce this bias.