Prediction of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) infestation trends across fruit bats migratory seasons

Abstract Background : The majority of the rural populace of West and Central Africa participate actively in bushmeat commodity trade. The peak of this trade usually occurs during the migration of massive flocks of fruit bats. Unfortunately, this commercial period happens to coincides with the most conducive time for the spread of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) which is transmitted by these fruit bats. We, therefore, conducted this study to predict EVD infestation trend among individuals who might be vulnerable and/or infected (hunters, vendors, and consumers of bushmeat) as a result of this seasonal bats migration. Methods: A secondary data collected in Ghana and semi-structured questionnaires were administered to international students from 7 countries (Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana, Liberia, Zambia, Gabon, Guinea, and Ivory-Coast) and responses collated were used in this study. Bivariate correlation, probabilistic transmission rate of EVD, and probabilistic model (P-SIR) were employed to predict susceptible and infected individuals. Results : In all affected countries, it was observed that; there was a yearly bats’ migration pattern. 80 % of all interviewees confirmed that hunting, trading and consuming of bats influenced the rapid spread of EVD. The bivariate correlation between fruit bats and people involved in the bushmeat commodity chain was significant (p < 0.05) and the probability of infected bats were equally significant across the sampled countries. The estimated probabilistic rate was between 0.0099 and 0.01120, while individuals susceptible to EVD were predicted to be approximately between 5 and 45 (hunters), 0-18 f(vendors), and 25-90 (consumers). Conclusion : The migratory season of fruit bats contributes to EVD transmission in the most affected countries. People should avoid bushmeat consumption or eradicate all activities leading to the interaction with fruit bats to reduce the spread of EVD (Ebola) especially during the migratory seasons. Policy-makers and government agencies should also put in mechanisms that will protect their citizens during the fruit bats season. Keywords : bushmeat commodity chain, Ebola, migration season, EVD, fruit bats