Geodetic estimate of seismic hazard in the Gulf of Korinthos

The recent 15 June 1995, M0 = 6.0 × 1018 N m, Aigion earthquake in the western Gulf of Korinthos has focussed attention on the seismic hazard of the region. Although there have been few large earthquakes in the region during this century, the historical record suggests that there may have been many large earthquakes there in the interval 1750–1900. We present geodetic data that give estimates of the rate of extension of the Gulf of Korinthos during this century and which suggest that less than half of the elastic strain in the central and western Gulf of Korinthos has been released by earthquakes during this century. In contrast, the seismic and geodetic strains in the eastern Gulf of Korinthos are in agreement with each other. If the discrepancy between seismic and geodetic strains in the western Gulf of Korinthos that has accumulated during this century is removed in earthquakes, the moment release will be equivalent to several Ms > 6.5 earthquakes.