Regional Growth Associated with SEZs, Socio-Economic and Spatial Imbalances: Impact of Corporate Agglomeration and FDI in Gabon's Forestry Sector and Proposal of a Sustainable Governance Model (DGMUG) Applicable to Southern Countries

This study examines the impact of firm agglomeration on foreign direct investment (FDI), public investment, export revenues, and industrial income in Gabon’s forestry sector, comparing the Nkok Special Economic Zone (SEZ) with areas outside the SEZ. Using robust econometric approaches—including ordinary least squares (OLS) time-series and bias-corrected (BC) panel models—the analysis highlights socio-economic and geographic disparities within Gabon’s forestry industry. The study also assesses the effects of FDI and public investment on firm clustering, exports, and industrial income in both zones. Following an evaluation of disparities in Gabon’s forestry sector, the study proposes a Dynamic Governance Model for Uneven Growth (DGMUG) to manage accelerated development and mitigate resulting inequalities. The findings reveal that the Nkok SEZ benefits from favorable industrialization conditions, marked by strong growth, sustained exports, and concentrated FDI supported by public investment. In contrast, peripheral regions experience slower and less stable growth due to structural challenges and insufficient targeted investments. Furthermore, while FDI combined with public investment has a positive impact in Nkok, it exerts a negative effect outside the SEZ, exacerbating geographic polarization. Post-2018, investments in the SEZ declined, likely due to market saturation and weakened public-private cooperation, whereas investments outside the SEZ remained limited. To address these imbalances, the study introduces the DGMUG as a complementary framework to existing strategies, such as those of the World Bank (2011). This model outlines three phases: (1) initial polarization, (2) an acceleration phase with potential scenarios (lethal, stagnation, or acceleration-diversification), and (3) a transition toward regional equilibrium. The study underscores the mechanisms of polarization and resulting inequalities while proposing strategies to mitigate disparities and foster more balanced regional development.