Exploring drivers of change in the Ross Sea with a regional ocean model

The Ross Sea and Ross Ice Shelf have remained relatively unchanged over recent decades, despite increasing global anthropogenic influences, and ocean temperatures and ice shelf melt rates increasing nearby. Future atmospheric warming, for example, could lead to a transition of the sub-ice shelf cavity from its current cold state to a warm state, which could in turn result in a dramatic increase to the currently low basal melt rates in the Ross Ice Shelf. We present a regional ocean model configuration (NEMO) at 1/4° resolution, which encompasses the whole of the Ross Sea, Ross Gyre and Ross Ice Shelf, as well as eastwards to include the Amundsen Sea, with a series of perturbation experiments to near-surface air temperature (an increase of 10°C) and precipitation (an increase by a factor of two) and a combination of the two. The model includes static ice shelves, extending from Merz to Venable, and their thermodynamic interaction with the ocean. Perturbations to the air temperature and precipitation alone are not sufficient to significantly alter the circulation or oceanographic conditions within the Ross Sea or within the cavity of the Ross Ice Shelf. However, when both perturbations are applied simultaneously, waters within the Ross Ice Shelf cavity warm to over 1°C, inducing an increase in basal melt of around 1000 Gt/yr within the cavity over the course of the simulated period 2017-2100. We see an increase in the strength of the Ross Gyre, with an eastward extension of the gyre into the Amundsen Sea. Circulation within the cavity is also affected, with a visible reduction in the outflow of waters from the cavity. Oceanographic changes within the cavity and the Ross Sea could have an effect on deep water formation and wider reaching impacts on global circulation.