L’enfer c’est les autres? The effects of COVID-19 virus on interpersonal trust

Does the COVID-19 pandemic affect interpersonal trust? Most evidence shows that natural disasters reinforce trust and cooperation, but the COVID-19 virus differs from other calamities since it spreads through contact with people, potentially increasing suspicion and distrust. We investigate the link between exposure to COVID-19 and trust in strangers in a representative sample of adults in Italy, one the countries hardest struck by the pandemic. Contrary to intuitive expectations, by conducting a panel study with an embedded survey experiment we find that those who report COVID-19 symptoms trust strangers substantially more than those who do not. Panel data analysis shows that trust increases within individuals who catch COVID-19, although the effect seems to decline once people recover. In addition, our experimental findings reveal that priming people on the risk that the COVID-19 pandemic poses to their health, leads to a substantial increase in trust in strangers, which lasts over time. Priming in terms of job loss and economic recession too leads to a smaller increase in trust in strangers, while solidarity appeals and knowledge of people with COVID-19 symptoms in one’s network has no effects on trust. These findings could be explained partly by people observing altruistic behavior and increasing their estimate of other people’s trustworthiness and partly by conjecturing that when caught in catastrophes people become more dependent on other people’s support and prone to “outward exposure”, consistently with the “emancipation theory of trust”.