Personalized algorithm for predicting the formation of bronchiectasis in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis

Introduction. Chronic bronchitis is the most common chronic lung disease. The main problem of this disease is late diagnosis due to mild clinical symptomatology and untimely application of patients for medical help. One tool to solve this problem is the search of predictors of bronchiectasis development in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis.Aim: To optimize the prediction of bronchiectasis formation in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis.Material and Methods. Observation of 92 patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis was carried out and an attempt to predict bronchiectasis formation in them after 12 months of observation was made. The course of chronic mucopurulent bronchitis was assessed after 12 months. The main group was divided into two subgroups depending on the development of bronchiectasis according to chest computed tomography (CCT). The content of circulating annexin V mononuclear cells at different stages of apoptosis of circulating annexin V mononuclear cells and the neutrophil-lymphocyte index (NLI) were determined.Results. To develop a personalized prediction of the probability of bronchiectasis formation in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis after 12 months, the studied biomarkers were analyzed and the dynamics of these biomarkers were assessed after 12 months of observation (second control point). Increasing the probability of bronchiectasis development in patients with chronic mucous-purulent bronchitis according to the results of the study are: increase in the value of neutrophil-lymphocytic index at exacerbation of chronic mucous-purulent bronchitis by 1 increases the risk of bronchiectasis formation in 57,136. The presence of association of microbial agents increases the risk of bronchiectasis formation by 57,077 times. Increase in the specific weight (%) of circulating annexin V mononuclear cells at the early stage of apoptosis at the beginning of exacerbation by 1% increases the risk of bronchiectasis formation by 4,982 times, increase in disease duration by 1 year increases the risk by 1,633 times.Conclusion. The obtained personalized algorithm for predicting the probability of bronchiectasis formation in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis has high sensitivity and specificity – 96,6% and 98,4%, respectively.