Simulating the Overall Hospital Quality Star Ratings With Random Measure Weights

ImportanceHospital ratings including the US News & World Report’s Best Hospitals rankings and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS’) Overall Hospital Quality Star Rating (Overall Star Rating) measure different outcomes and are weakly correlated. Therefore, methods for defining and measuring reliable excellence, defined as consistently great performance across all quality measures, are needed.ObjectiveTo assess a measure of reliable excellence using the 45 quality measures reported in the Overall Star Ratings.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study used hospital-level data from the 2023 and 2024 CMS Overall Star Ratings at all US hospitals with a 2023 and 2024 CMS Overall Star Rating.ExposuresThe exposure was the CMS Overall Star Rating summary score, a continuous variable calculated from the weighted z scores of 45 quality measures used in the Overall Star Rating. A total of 100 000 simulations were run in which all US hospitals’ CMS Overall Star Rating summary scores were calculated through summation of z scores from randomly generated measure weights, as opposed to the existing weights used in the Overall Star Rating method.Main Outcomes and MeasuresReliable excellence, defined as achieving a 90th percentile (or better) CMS Overall Star Rating summary score on at least 50 000 of 100 000 simulations. The percentage of hospitals achieving reliable excellence was calculated both overall and stratified by CMS Ovearll Star Ratings.ResultsThere were 2700 hospitals in the analysis, with 335 5-star hospitals (12.4%), 727 4-star hospitals (26.9%), 799 3-star hospitals (29.6%), 572 2-star hospitals (21.2%), and 267 1-star hospitals (9.9%) in the 2024 CMS Overall Star Rating. A total of 244 of 2700 hospitals (9.0%) met the study definition of reliable excellence, whereas 1287 of 2700 hospitals (47.7%) achieved excellence in at least 1 simulation.Conclusions and RelevanceThis cross-sectional study of 2700 US hospitals found that only 244 hospitals (9.0%), including less than two-thirds of the CMS 5-star rated hospitals, were reliably excellent across 100 000 CMS Overall Star Rating scoring simulations using random measure weightings. These findings lend credence to the ubiquity of inconsistent greatness in health care quality and illuminate the need for methods to distinguish hospitals that provide reliably excellent care.