Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of Central Asia: status and challenges

Abstract. Glaciers are one of the most important water supplies of glacierized catchments in Central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers, snow cover and permafrost will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of Central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete datasets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of Central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response of catchments to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing these uncertainties.