10-YEAR STROKE RISK PREDICTION: A CENTRAL REGION OF VIETNAM COMMUNITY-BASED RESEARCH

Objective: This study aim to predict the risk of cerebral stroke in the next 10 years with QStroke® tool in Thua Thien - Hue province, a central region province of Vietnam. Design and method: A cross-sectional study recruits 1,600 Vietnamese adults aged from 25 to 84 who were in 4 different eco-regions in many parts of Thua Thien Hue included city, delta, mountainous, and coastal region. We calculated the 10-year risk of stroke using QStroke® 2017. Results: According to data on clinical characteristics collected in 2018. By 2020, the risk prediction of stroke in all study subjects is <10%. In the following years, the proportion of below 10% risk subject group tends to decrease, and equal or more than 10% subject groups tend to increase. By 2028, 10-year of prediction, the risk of stroke is less than 10% in 84.2% of research subjects, 7.1% of subjects have stroke risk level of 10% to 14%, 4.6% of subjects have stroke risk of 15% to 19% and 4.1% of subjects have stroke risk level equal or more than 20%. Analysis of the next 10 years risk prediction by ecological region showed that there is a difference in the risk of stroke prediction in the next 10 years between the delta region and coastal region (p < 0.0125), the difference between delta region and city area (p < 0.0125). The delta region has the highest risk of stroke in the next 10 years compared to the rest. Thereby, it is necessary to study in-depth the risk factors for stroke in the delta region to have the next intervention programs to improve the health of the people generally. Conclusions: The proportion of people at risk of stroke increasing year-by-year if they do not have any effective prevention intervention. The delta region has the highest risk of suffering a stroke in the next 10 years compared to the rest. A comprehensive intervention strategy for risk factors is the answer in reducing the risk of stroke in the community.