Carbon sink potential of kelp cultivation in Fujian province, China

Macroalgae, such as kelp, are typical carbon sink organisms that play a crucial role in absorbing and sequestering CO2, thereby mitigating global climate change. China is the world's largest producer of farmed kelp, with Fujian Province leading the country in kelp cultivation,  contributing significantly to carbon sequestration. Based on the "China Fisheries Statistical Yearbook" from 2004 to 2024, we estimated the aquaculture carbon sinks of kelp in Fujian over the past two decades, including biomass carbon sinks, sediment carbon sinks, transported carbon sinks, and refractory dissolved organic carbon. We also employed the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the trend of kelp aquaculture carbon sinks in Fujian from 2024 to 2033. The results indicate that the carbon sinks from kelp aquaculture in Fujian increased from 270,800-287,900 tons in 2004 to 504,700-531,600 tons in 2023, nearly doubling. According to the ARIMA model (0, 2, 1), the carbon sinks from kelp aquaculture in Fujian are expected to continue increasing steadily over the next decade, reaching 562,900-591,400 tons by 2033, which is 2.1 times that of 2004. Assessment of kelp aquaculture carbon sinks and predictions for the next decade's carbon sinks  provide a basis for proposing development strategies. This has significant reference value for Fujian Province in efficiently developing the kelp aquaculture carbon sink industry and contributing to the achievement of the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goals in China.